In his latest attempt to CALM EVERYONE THE FUCK DOWN, Bashir has blamed zombies, crab people, gingers, witches, Jews and climate change for the recent protestsdemonstrations kerfuffle in Khartoum.
Following his head of PR's advice that the public are probably not going to buy that the recent problems are not actually a mini uprising but rather just a bunch of street children going mental, Bashir has gone into full "crazy dictator's crazier explanations for country's problems" mode. The key is saturation of scapegoats.......try them all and one is sure to succeed.
Although Bashir was given great credit for introducing the latest excuse of;
"We've already had an arab spring-like revolution in Sudan.......this is the product of it, and we are totally not due for another one for at least another 30 years."
So to all you commentators and voyeurs-of-revolutions out there who are on the brink of bursting that sweet uprising nectar.......You'll have to just put it back in your pants.
Despite these seemingly concrete plans that are clearly going to work, some within his faction who have a lack of faith for Bashir's strategy have been devising alternative plans:
"Separately, the President’s uncle, al-Tayeb Mustafa, advised his cousin to withdraw from the NCP and initiate a process of political reform in the country with free and fair elections as its endpoint. Thereby, he argued, the President could streamline an Arab Spring in Sudan without going through its risky pangs, the non-alcoholic beer of a revolution without a revolution. " (source)
(I can't believe I found a relevant video that is also related to current pop-culture)
"Paradoxically, an all-out civil war in Sudan may be the best way to permanently oust Mr. Bashir and minimize casualties. If a low-intensity conflict rages on, it will lead to a humanitarian disaster."
Seriously Gerard Prunier? I now imagine you're the type of person to put out a grease fire with an RPG.
You sound like an artificial intelligence robot that developed consciousness and calculated the conclusion that the only way to solve humanities problems is to eradicate humanity itself.
Polemic bullshit like this really gets on my nerves......all I hear is an endless barrage of emotionally driven irrational rhetoric that is more destructive than helpful. High-intensity conflict is not the solution. Its a nice thought, but clearly not one that has been very well though through.
For instance, how can one be sure that an all-out civil war won't simply be stretched out over a long period time with innumerable casualties on all sides? Is it really fair to throw those who may not necessarily have a desire to fight into a full-scale war? Irrelevant of which side of the battlefield they stand on, in an all-out civil war, everyone is thrown into the line of sight. Furthermore, Prunier assumes that the dynamics of an all-out civil war is will be so simple, with one united front clashing against Bashir and his henchmen. Rather, we have long seen the complications of the group dynamics within the various conflict afflicted regions. These complications arise from distinctly differing reasons for their rebellion in the first place and more importantly, differences in their end game or vision for the conflict. For example the various Darfuri rebels have always had problems agreeing on issues. More recently, there was this. In an all-out civil war, it really wouldn't be that hard to imagine that Bashir, being true to his diabolical Bond-villain-like nature, would simply exploit these differences to cause internal clashes, thus weakening any united alliances. We've seen it happen in South Sudan with the apparent financing of rebel groups by Khartoum during and after the war.
More importantly, even if somehow the rebels were able to stay united and manage to oust Bashir.........what then? With so many differing visions of what Sudan should be, coming from a range of peoples who are typically ethnically and culturally distinct from each other, can it be assumed that they would all just sit down be able to come up with a clear plan as to how the country will be ruled and by whom? Or is it just as likely that the these various rebels representing their community will continue to fight and will continue to increase the death toll, long after Bashir is gone?
I realise that I sound extremely pessimistic......but thats because I am. I will always be pessimistic towards the war option, especially when I am still very optimistic about a peaceful option.
"The status quo is not working, regardless of what American and United Nations officials might believe."
Yes, the status quo may not be working......but that doesn't mean that we give up and simply start shooting. It means that we change the status quo. For example, Prunier argues that;
"Whenever foreign leaders demand greater respect for human rights or peace talks, Sudan always agrees, because agreeing makes the international community happy"
Well, equally valid is the fact that foreign leaders also always promise Sudan that they would finally ease up on all the sanctions if Sudan did "X", but when Sudan does "X", foreign leaders do not follow through. More on this point here.
"Indeed, without some moral common ground, “negotiations” are merely a polite way of acquiescing to evil, especially when one’s interlocutors are pathologically incapable of respecting their own word. And in the case of a murderer like Mr. Bashir, there is no moral common ground."
Only fools hold negotiations based on moral common ground. Negotiations need to bring about mutual agreements that reflect a sense of interdependence for all parties. You can't expect people to be motivated to work together when there is no strong reason for them to do so. I think that with more time, investment/commitment from foreign leaders and with a continued preservation of hope for a peaceful solution, the war option can be kept under the bed along with all the other childish fantasies.
And in regards to Prunier himself.......it is so fucking easy for you to sit there in your armchair and talk of war when the saliency of the suffering, sacrifices and casualties of conflict is so far from your arrogant mind. Place your life and the lives of those you love on the front line and then we'll see if your strong support for war persists. In the future, be more careful with your sentiments, as your words are likely to influence the opinion of those that read it, and this world does not require anymore warmongers..........unless your solution to humanities problems is in fact to eradicate humanity itself.
............now I need to go wash the taste of hippy off my mouth.
Reports are coming in of Sudanese Airforce dropping bombs on the UNMISS camp in Bentiu...
It appears that the SPLA have intentionally not target the planes with their anti-air weapons following a secret deal that was made between the North and the South. Apparently, both sides have grown so sick and tired of the sheer laziness and incompetence of UNMISS that they both turned their sights on to the peacekeepers and UN general staff.
"Gideon, the minister, Gatpan said that two bombs had fallen in the UN camp, destroying a generator and a radio."
In an interview with the minister, he said,
"We told the northerners to target their main sources of entertainment, namely, their electricity and communications.......we are hoping that once they no longer have anything fun to do in their fancy camps, they might get off their ass and do some peacekeeping, build some peace or at least just get out for some fresh air."
An interview with the Northern military spokesman confirmed this,
"Yeah well.....we're all out here fighting a war, getting ourselves blow up and shit, the least those bastards could do is have enough consideration to just pretend like they give a fuck. Instead, they just sit there acting all high and mighty like our beef is not good enough for them. It's like they're all waiting to get transfered to a sexier conflict in somewhere like Syria. Anyways, we decided to bomb their entertainment system in hopes that they will finally leave their compound to watch us blow the shit out of each other......let's hope it works."
I was recently sent this most interesting link of a video of a Sufi Tariqa (order) in Sudan performing a ritual ceremony......with ostriches?!
Further research led to the photograph above from a Foreign Policy collection of photos of Sudan as a whole released just before the South's independence. There are references to ostriches in a bunch of articles, but nothing that actually explains the significance of ostriches to their ceremonies. Just references to the creature in metaphorical a
I consulted my Sufi expert (because all the cool kids have one of those), who has spent some time with this Tariqa in Sudan but he was unsure of it himself. I then tried to consult my ostrich expert, but he had his head in the ground (ba-dum-tiss)
If anyone out there has some answers and would like to enlighten me, I would be very grateful.
The Kenyan foreign minister Moses Wetangula on Tuesday announced that his government will not host the Intergovernmental Authority on Development (IGAD) meeting that was to be dedicated for discussions on the Sudan issues.
The decision comes against the backdrop of the arrest warrant issued by a Kenyan high court judge last month for Sudanese president Omer Hassan al-Bashir in compliance with similar warrant from the International Criminal Court (ICC)....the Kenyan top diplomat reversed course revealing that Kenya has written to IGAD to allow Ethiopia host the summit since President Meles Zenawi is the current IGAD chairman.
*****Please note, what started as a meaningful post has just been replaced with self-indulgence******
Seriously World, its not what you think.......
So first, the World's initial exposure to South Sudan is through a Hollywood movie about a white priest who hunts rebels and saves kids, now, the World's first exposure to South Sudanese music is through this guy.......Bangs.
Seemingly a member of the South Sudanese diaspora in Australia, Bangs has recently become yet another internet sensation........ironically. Luckily though, a lot of his videos are made pre-independence and so all the maps of Sudan he refers to on the video is simply, Sudan.......not South-specific (I say this because the North don't need their music industry defending.....it is booming on its own).
And YES, I know you have heard of Emmanuel Jal, but thats because your an aid worker and pride yourself on being down with the exoticness.....thats why you probably have K'naan in your music collection and tell people that you've been listening to him since before the World Cup. Also, Bangs has about 500,000 more hits than Emmanuel Jal.......never underestimate the power of internet trolls.
But Bangs is not the only SS diaspora musician. A quick google search leads you to an array of rather embarrassing amateur videos. Although not all of them are terrible. This is my favourite, though they are in Kenya, so they get a bit more street cred:
"We love you, Juba we love you...."(I can't make out the rest of the lyrics of the chorus, but it still brings joy to my heart)
And heres one from the US...... I think.
OK, ok, just one more. If you guys used to read the old version of Sudan Tribune that still had the comments section open, you will appreciate this. Ever wonder what happened to Dinka Boy? Well he is now D-Boy:
"I am the Sudanese man, I like the way I am. All I need is freedom, cause Im the Sudanese man"
Instant banger!
I would just like to take this moment to appeal to the World, to not simply write off South Sudanese music based on this one artist. For a country that is still recovering (probably closer to starting from scratch) from the civil war, South Sudan has surprisingly done pretty damn well in establishing its music industry. But those are simply words aren't they? Well, if you have the time to spare, here is a select few South Sudanese (locally produced) tracks that I feel better represents the country. Please note that a lot of the really good tracks are impossible to find on Youtube as they are only available at in Juba.
First, we got a classic tune. This was on loop on South Sudan TV in the lead to the referendum (and NO, not because SSTV didn't really have much material to air at the time!). Emmanuel Kembe:
Not feeling that one? A little bit too slow for your? Try this classic dance tune:
This one goes out to my peacebuilders out there:
Since I have just obviously gone off on a self-indulgent ride of sweet audible Juba memories, here is an brilliant track with a great video from the Sudan Votes album (this whole album is a good introduction to Sudanese pop music). This track is a collaboration with artists from all over the country:
And finally, what better way to say goodbye than to say good bye to the Arabs, "Bye Bye Jalaba"
I actually have a lot more to share. Let me know in the comments section if you are interested.
Nah, just kidding. This is actually just another post about why I hate Prendergast.
In introducing our favourite humanitarian disaster, Stephen Colbert said this,
"....and your group helped push the referendum that led to the creation of South Sudan"
In which Prendergrast replied with a.....
(nod, nod, nod)
Now before I go ahead and criticise Prendergast for not correcting Colbert for such a claim, I thought it would only be fair that I first spoke to those involved in the referendum to see whether this point may actually be true.
So I hoped on my magic donkey and went to see my bro Bashir to get his views.
"Prendergast?! Dude with feminine long hair? He is somebody? I think that hippy was George Clooney's drug dealer or personal assistant. But no, he do nothing to push referendum.....it was all Clooney. He told me I get to be in his next movie with Matt Damon.........Kim Jong Il is going to be so jealous"
Anyone else out there tries to take credit away from the people who truly struggled to reach this independence will know my wrath. I will write many blog posts using the most juvenile of insults to bring shame upon you and your genetic existence.
Organisations that merely raise awareness for a bunch of self-righteous American college students who then go and host parties to raise awareness amongst themselves in a self-gratifying circle jerk gets no credit.
Clooney on the other hand gets mad props. Respect brother.
And yes, I am being petty. But you see, Prendergast to me is like what airplane food is to a failing comedian. When I have no material to write about, I can always rely on Prendergast for inspiration just as a comedian can turn to airplane food in times of desperation.
So despite my inherent hatred towards him, he is pretty much the foundation of my blogging career.
Only 2 days to go before I start to really struggle to fill in the “current location” part of any form on the Internet and I am way to excited to be writing blog posts. So Im just gonna try summarise lots of issues into this one post:
-Last night at 10 pm the Transitional Constitution of South Sudan was passed. Only 10 out of the many potential amendments were passed thus leaving the President with an excessive amount of power. I believe President Salva Kiir is now Commander in Chief of all animals and is also able to resurrect the dead. The fact that some of the suggest amendments were made to the draft is a good sign that the process has a lot of potential. Also, this is just an interim constitution, so hopefully things will play out better the next time around. More coverage on this once I get a hold of the complete version.
-Some of my favourite number crunching nerds have come together to write an interesting post on the economic prospects of South Sudan. Im pretty sure almost all of my readers got here through Roving Bandit anyways so I won’t get into it, but I would like to point out that they failed to mention anything about security... So I will be going to break all of their abacuses to remind them about the effects of violence on economists…I mean economics.
-Juba is going through some CRAZY transformations in preparation for this Saturday. For example, when I first moved here, we used to have to drive past a roundabout that was demarcated using a tyre that would always get stolen and then replaced with some other object. That tyre is now a huge concrete roundabout with grass flourishing in the middle of it and tarmacked roads leading up to it from every direction. Roads which now have lanes drawn on it and street signs to manage it. Also, did anybody say proper pistachio ice cream? OH YEEEEEAAH.
-There has been rumours flying around about apparent government representatives from certain countries that refused to come celebrate the birth of this new country simply because President Bashir will be attending (its not cool to hang with people who have ICC warrants). Now of course these are just rumours, but if it is true all I have to say is suck it up you self-righteous little bitch*. July 9th isn’t about you, the ICC, or Bashir. It is about South Sudan’s birthday; and it will invite its long time villain if it wants to, invite its long time villain if it wants to. I personally have incredible respect for South Sudan for inviting Bashir despite their obviously murderous history. So if the victims of Bashir’s aggression can be big enough to have him present, the rest of you need to stop being such wankers* and respect their decision. Plus, so what if you don’t come? You player haters are the ones who are going to miss out on Bashir’s dictator dance:
OH, and all you countries better recognise yo......seriously-literally, please dont be a dick and not recognise South Sudan.
* The swear words found here are dedicated to Abhi, who thinks my blog has become better now that I don’t swear as much……fuck you Abhi….fuck you.
As it turns out... other countries and military threats aren't actually needed to help bring an end to conflict.* Africans solving African problems.....its beautiful:
The "Framework Agreement between Government of Sudan and Sudan People’s Liberation Movement (North) on Political Partnership between NCP and SPLMN, and Political and Security Arrangements in Blue Nile and Southern Kordofan States" was signed yesterday and should hopefully bring an end to the violence in the region.
Now this is only a framework agreement, which means a lot of negotiating still needs to be done and that there is still a high chance of violence breaking out. Abyei has been in negotiations for like forever and still escalates to violence when things go sour at the table. Nonetheless, negotiations are definitely better than bombs.
The agreement only consists of 2 sections, political arrangements and security arrangements. Some highlights of the agreement:
2. The Parties affirm the right of the SPLMN to continue as a legal political party in Sudan.
4. The Parties shall convene the Joint Political Committee immediately. The issues of governance in Southern Kordofan shall be discussed and resolved amicably by the Joint Political Committee within thirty days.
5 c.Without prejudice to the bilateral discussion between the two Parties on issues to be addressed through the process of popular consultation, the Popular Consultation process shall be extended beyond 9 July 2011 through an agreed amendment by the National Assembly.
9.The Parties agree on the following principles, which shall be the basis for the work of the Joint Security Committee:
a.Respect for the sovereignty and territorial integrity of the Republic of the Sudan and the inviolability of its national borders.
b.Securing sustainable peace and stability and ensuring the safety and security of communities of Blue Nile and Southern Kordofan.
c.SPLA members from Southern Kordofan and Blue Nile are citizens of the Republic of the Sudan and their future lies in the Republic of Sudan.
d.The Republic of Sudan will have one national army.
e.The SPLA forces from Southern Kordofan and Blue Nile shall be integrated, over a time period and with modalities to be agreed,into the Sudan Armed Forces, other security institutions, and the civil service, or DDR.
f.Any disarmament shall be done in accordance with agreed-upon plans and without resorting to force.
The full document is available here thanks to John Ashworth (Let me know if that link fails). Here is some Sudan Tribune coverage too
*Yes, I do realise that the NCP may not have signed the agreement if the US had not gone ahead with its carrots and sticks policy, but I like to dream.....also there is this too:
Separately, Qutbi Al-Mahdi distrusted promises by the U.S. administration to help relieve Sudan’s hefty external debts in exchange for de-escalating the situation in the country’s North-South border state of South Kordofan, where the Northern army has been fighting elements aligned with South Sudan army.
Al-Mahdi told reporters in Khartoum on Monday that the NCP does not pay any attention to U.S. promises whether on the debt issue or other issues because the government realises that the U.S. administration “spews such promises to achieve particular ends then reneges on its commitments.”
“The failure to fulfill promises and commitments is a moral issue and we know to which extent does America honors its promises,” the ruling party official said.
Al-Mahdi went on to fulminate against the U.S. policy know as the “carrot-and-stick,” saying that no free people would accept to deal with America in accordance with this “nefarious” policy.
“That’s why we in Sudan do not afford America’s promises any attention,” he added.
The U.S. Administration is currently in the process of removing Sudan’s name from its blacklist of countries sponsoring terrorism, but the administration has warned Sudan government that the process of normalisation of ties would be jeopardised if the Northern army does not withdraw from the contested region of Abyei which it seized last month.
Yesterday President Barack Obama released a statement praising a peace
agreement in Abyei, another Sudanese border region, and condemning the
violence in Southern Kordofan.....
"...With a ceasefire in Southern Kordofan, alongside the agreement to deploy peacekeepers to Abyei, we can get the peace process back on track. But without these actions, the roadmap for better relations with the Government of Sudan cannot be carried forward, which will only deepen Sudan’s isolation in the international community....."
This statement highlights one of the biggest potential leverage points Washington has with Khartoum: the “carrot” of normalized relations. Yet as author Bec Hamilton wrote on Twitter, the perceived value of this “carrot” may be disappearing: “That’s no longer leverage since Khartoum doesn’t believe it will ever happen (and they are probably right).”
Read the rest of the post, he raises an interesting question at the end of it.
Setting aside my disdain of Khartoum's current military policy, I think that they have every right to no longer trust those American carrots. I've previously discussed the failings of enticing Khartoum with the prospects of removing it from the State Sponsors of Terrorism List. Insignificant Block also has a post covering more examples of American Carrots that lie.
The track record of the carrots is basically; the US asks Khartoum to do something and promises to normalise relation if Khartoum completed the task. Khartoum does that thing. The US doesn't normalise relations and decides to up the ante on what it wants from Khartoum. While Im totally in support of getting your carrot's worth, there really is only so far you can push it.
With US carrots becoming more and more redundant, China's role has become more significant than ever. That is why I don't think this is a fantastic idea:
"The United States should press China to rescind its invitation for Bashir to visit China and dispatch a senior administration official to develop joint diplomacy in support of a peace deal, including pressures and incentives to leverage that agreement."
At this point, if China is willing to do what it can to bring an end to this conflict it can't risk associating itself with the US camp.
Update:
He also reiterated that the successful experience of Sino-Sudanese relations should be attributed to mutual respect and non-intervention in each other's internal affairs.
"China does not intervene in the internal affairs of others. The success of Sino-Sudanese cooperation has encouraged African countries to search for their real and loyal partner."(China Daily)
Oh how naïve I was to think China would act otherwise.
OK...New plan. Give Prendergrast, Clooney, the Machine Gun Preacher and Ninja in Afghanistan anti-air missels to shoot down Bashir's plane on the way back.
.....