Arming South Sudan with A.A.

Former US Special Envoy to Sudan, Andrew Natsios, recently suggested that the US should arm South Sudan with anti air weapons to bring an end to Sudan's aerial bullying.

Now he suggests that.........WAIT........hold on.......haven't we heard this before?

............Oh yes.

It was originally the brilliant suggestion of my hero, John Prendergast.

Well done, Andrew Natsisos, you have just stolen an idea from George Clooney's shadow.....

Taliban Tweet Battle....yo

The following is an exchange between the Taliban spokesman (spox), Abdulqaqhar Balkhi, and the International Security Assistance Force's twitter-guy. From the Guardian:

ISAF: "Re: Taliban spox on #Kabul attack: the outcome is inevitable. Question is how much longer will            terrorist put innocent Afghans in harm's way?" 

Taliban: "@ISAFmedia i dnt knw.u hve bn pttng thm n 'harm's way' fr da pst 10 yrs. Razd whole vllgs n mrkts.n stil hv da nrve to tlk bout 'harm's way" 

ISAF: "Really, @abalkhi? UNAMA reported 80% of civilians causalities are caused by insurgent (your) activities http://goo.gl/FylwU" 

Taliban: @ISAFmedia UNAMA is an entity of whom? mine or yours?

Damn.


That was a few weeks ago. They're still fighting today:




ISAF: 11 children among dead. Noticed @abalkhi didn't tweet this one.http://ow.ly/6GQWH


But who ever is in charge of the ISAF twitter page is fully engaged, as seen in today's exchange with  Joshuafoust

h/t: Harith Ramli

Quantifying Terrorism

photo credit



Discover Magazine has a fascinating article on how a particle physicists and an economist attempt to establish a model of terrorist behaviour.

“In political science literature, human rationality is primary. They assume groups are rational actors, have access to all the information, and make the right decisions,” Clauset says. “A physicist’s natural approach is to assume people are like particles, and their behavior the result of constraints beyond their control.”

The researchers found that the pattern of varying sizes of terrorists attacks against the number of casualties repeatedly formed a power law curve.

The splintered, disorganized nature of insurgencies became still clearer when Johnson and his colleagues looked at the timing of attacks. The numbers in Iraq, Colombia, Peru, and Afghanistan followed similar patterns, with “sudden bursts of activity, then quiet periods,” Spagat says. “If it were random, you would have far fewer busy days and far fewer quiet days than are captured in the data.” Without a centralized command to issue orders, there must be something else behind the clustered timing of attacks.

The article then delves into a debate on the strategic efficacy of adopting rational models of behaviour as opposed to context specific analysis.

Cultural context is not something Johnson pays much attention to. Accustomed to analyzing particles, which are not known for their reasoning capabilities or complex inner lives, physicists tend to ignore the why and go straight to the how. “All those questions of ‘why’ show a lack of understanding,” Johnson insists. “Whatever the reasons are, this is how they operate.” He has explained this to British and American military officers, Iraqi officials, and even security officials at the London Olympics. “Insurgents may be doing it for all sorts of reasons, but the mechanics are what matters.”

In the end the model still could not do what it had sought to accomplish, that is, to be able to predict terrorist attacks.

“Nothing we’ve done suggests we can predict there will be an attack in, say, the next two weeks,” Spagat freely concedes. “Rather, a physics-inspired insurgency model can help guide more general decisions. If the data show that attacks happen in a bursty pattern, it makes sense to have emergency medical teams able to react to several attacks at once. And the data offer a rough guide to how big those attacks might be, based on how they’ve looked in the past.” Moreover, he says, if the model is right about modern insurgencies’ being a constantly shifting collection of small, unconnected groups, it would be a useful tool for military planners trying to find the most effective tactics.

Definitely worth a read as the world continues to fly almost blindly in its counter-insurgency strategies, put together with the devastatingly horrible results of using quantitative analysis based strategies in Vietnam.

“a lot of people think counterinsurgency is very qualitative, very mushy, and should stay that way. It’s almost a mystical thing,”

Mind-controlled sharks?

"The shark attacks have the potential to do some real damage to Egypt, where tourism is pillar of the economy and an important provider of jobs. But the idea that Israel is behind the attacks is pretty farfetched."

That's Max Strasser writing for FP

Is it really pretty far-fetched? Just last week someone from the US Naval Post-graduate School suggested that DARPA should finance a robotic submarine system that would intelligently control teams of dolphins to detect underwater mines and protect ships in harbors.......

Ok, yeah it is still pretty far-fetched, but a guy can fantasize can't he?

Best official reaction to the Wikileaks so far

[Admiral Mike] Mullen, the chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, said that the exposed conversations showed that the United States was "a global power with relationships all over the world."
"I don't mean this arrogantly, but I've lived in Europe, I've been a part of NATO, I've lived in the Pacific. I understand what United States leadership means and brings," Mullen said at the Center for American Progress think-tank.
"That doesn't mean we always have it right, that doesn't mean that we don't make mistakes - because we do," he said.
"But we as a country choose to engage because we think that in engaging and focusing on and trying to solve the problems, it leaves a region, a relationship and a world potentially in a better place," he said.
DefenseNews reports

Dolphin-Mind Controlling Robots

From the NYT:

"...a computer scientist at the Naval Postgraduate School has proposed that the Defense Advanced Research Projects Agency finance a robotic submarine system that would intelligently control teams of dolphins to detect underwater mines and protect ships in harbors. “If we run into a conflict with Iran, the likelihood of them trying to do something in the Strait of Hormuz is quite high,” said Raymond Buettner, deputy director of the Information Operations Center at the Naval Postgraduate School."

And my favourite part (financial justification for the project):

“One land mine blowing up one ship and choking the world’s oil supply pays for the entire Navy marine mammal program and its robotics program for a long time.”

Brilliant...
One zombie outbreak causing a collapse of the global financial system pays for the research into the Necronomicon to bring Ash Williams back into the present time

News nibbles

So I don't quite feel up for much comprehensive ranting this week. Not to say that there isn't anything to be said about the Abyei talks being held 'hostage' or the hot new idea to just give Abyei to the South in exchange for a financial package.
Instead allow me to share some links with you:

Humans are taking back the internet with this latest search engine that only produces verified (by actual people) websites. It filters out all those trashy websites that are loaded with adverts and try to trick you out of your money. A search with the keyword 'porn' reveals everything but what one was hoping to find.

In line with Britain's new Big Society vision, the Maidenhead and Windsor council has been tinkering with the idea of offering rewards for doing good deeds that benefit society. A strategy of positive reinforcement to better the behavior of society, that has not been received positively by everyone. Religious leaders complained, "First they separate the church and state, and monopolised crime and punishment. Now they want to monopolise good deeds and rewards. What happened to the promise of a small government!". Those on benefits claimed that they would need these rewards made available as welfare for those suffering from a altruistic deficiency that prevents them from giving a shit.

Danger room has an article uncovering a real-life supervillian, Ibrahim Al-Asiri. The diabolical mastermind that brought us the explosive underpants and more recently, the explosive print cartridge. He may not have nuclear weapons or freeeking lasers but he did manage to convince his brother to shove a bomb up his ass.

The US military has begun their process of 'Hippy-fying' their troops by releasing the T2 Mood tracker, a smart phone application that is "designed to yield information that can assist doctors and therapists in addressing common responses to combat, such as post-traumatic stress and depression". Everyday, the user can update his emotion and mood and that information is collected and analysed by therapist who then know exactly how to address the soldier. Chinese hackers have begun breaking into the system and targeting emotionally vulnerable soldiers with disparaging and hateful messages.

The US Navy has declared war on Algae - in a further attempt to appear like a bunch of tree-huggers, the US Navy has decided to feed its war machines with the ocean's plants. Green Peace and Sea Shepherd have awakened their sleeper cells to take down the plant loving/hating seamen.

That is all.

Warfare Goes Green

Even with the busy task of protecting the World from Evil-doers, the World's mightiest military forces have still manage to spare some morality for the environment.
What started as a typically humorous posting on The Onion 2 years ago, on "Bush's plan to make the War in Iraq more Eco-friendly" has now become a reality.
Jumping on the Green band wagon, some military forces and weapons manufacturers have recently been announcing several new products to ensure that killing people does not harm the environment. Here are some examples:

The US Air Force's A-10C Thunderbolt took to the air for the first time, powered by a blend of bio fuel or 'hydrocarbon synthetic jet fuel' to be specific.

At this year's Earth Day the US Navy launched its new line of "Green Hornets", an environmentally friendly version of its Super Hornet Jets

Being green is not limited to the skies though, most recently, the US Army introduced its new line of 'Green Bullets'.......yes that's right, Green ammunition. The new M855A1 will be replacing the Cold War Era M855 ammo and the 7.62mm rounds that are currently in use. So what makes this bullet environmentally friendly? Well, instead of the traditional lead slug, this new bullet will consist of copper slugs......Copper being kinder to the environment.

The US Defense Department has even included a chapter on "Crafting a Strategic Approach to Climate and Energy" in this quarter's Quadrennial Defense Review Report.


Across the pond, the British weapons manufacture, BAE Systems has spoken of developing a range of green weapons including, a 'bang-free bomb' to ensure the user doesn't choke on smoke when he is blowing people up, lead free ammo, and, my favourite, land mines that turn into manure over a period of time. The spokes woman for BAE said "We all have a duty of care to ensure that from cradle to grave products are being used appropriately and do not do lasting harm."

But it's not only the 'good guys' who are going green. In March, Indian intelligence officials received tips that terrorist groups may be planning an attack on the country using paragliders. It seems that even terrorist have fallen victim to global warming alarmists and are now reconsidering the use of commercial jetliners terrorise the world.

Whilst these ideas and inventions might lead one to believe that Warfare and those involved in it are trying to preserve the environment while they wipe out humanity - kind of like the neutron bomb - sadly, the real reasoning behind these changes are purely strategic. The best of these being the new m855A1 ammo because "troops have widely criticized it, saying it is ineffective against barriers such as car windshields and often travels right through unarmored insurgents, with less-than-lethal effects."

So don't get too hopeful about seeing a new DARPA initiative to create Captain Planet just yet.