Give war a chance......it's not as horrible as people say it is

                                          (I can't believe I found a relevant video that is also related to current pop-culture)

"Paradoxically, an all-out civil war in Sudan may be the best way to permanently oust Mr. Bashir and minimize casualties. If a low-intensity conflict rages on, it will lead to a humanitarian disaster."

Seriously Gerard Prunier? I now imagine you're the type of person to put out a grease fire with an RPG.
You sound like an artificial intelligence robot that developed consciousness and calculated the conclusion that the only way to solve humanities problems is to eradicate humanity itself.

Polemic bullshit like this really gets on my nerves......all I hear is an endless barrage of emotionally driven irrational rhetoric that is more destructive than helpful. High-intensity conflict is not the solution. Its a nice thought, but clearly not one that has been very well though through.

For instance, how can one be sure that an all-out civil war won't simply be stretched out over a long period time with innumerable casualties on all sides? Is it really fair to throw those who may not necessarily have a desire to fight into a  full-scale war? Irrelevant of which side of the battlefield they stand on, in an all-out civil war, everyone is thrown into the line of sight. Furthermore, Prunier assumes that the dynamics of an all-out civil war is will be so simple, with one united front clashing against Bashir and his henchmen. Rather, we have long seen the complications of the group dynamics within the various conflict afflicted regions. These complications arise from distinctly differing reasons for their rebellion in the first place and more importantly, differences in their end game or vision for the conflict. For example the various Darfuri rebels have always had problems agreeing on issues. More recently, there was this. In an all-out civil war, it really wouldn't be that hard to imagine that Bashir, being true to his diabolical Bond-villain-like nature, would simply exploit these differences to cause internal clashes, thus weakening any united alliances. We've seen it happen in South Sudan with the apparent financing of rebel groups by Khartoum during and after the war.


More importantly, even if somehow the rebels were able to stay united and manage to oust Bashir.........what then? With so many differing visions of what Sudan should be, coming from a range of peoples who are typically ethnically and culturally distinct from each other, can it be assumed that they would all just sit down be able to come up with a clear plan as to how the country will be ruled and by whom? Or is it just as likely that the these various rebels representing their community will continue to fight and will continue to increase the death toll, long after Bashir is gone?

I realise that I sound extremely pessimistic......but thats because I am. I will always be pessimistic towards the war option, especially when I am still very optimistic about a peaceful option.

"The status quo is not working, regardless of what American and United Nations officials might believe."

Yes, the status quo may not be working......but that doesn't mean that we give up and simply start shooting. It means that we change the status quo. For example, Prunier argues that;

"Whenever foreign leaders demand greater respect for human rights or peace talks, Sudan always agrees, because agreeing makes the international community happy"

 Well, equally valid is the fact that foreign leaders also always promise Sudan that they would finally ease up on all the sanctions if Sudan did "X", but when Sudan does "X", foreign leaders do not follow through. More on this point here.

"Indeed, without some moral common ground, “negotiations” are merely a polite way of acquiescing to evil, especially when one’s interlocutors are pathologically incapable of respecting their own word. And in the case of a murderer like Mr. Bashir, there is no moral common ground."

Only fools hold negotiations based on moral common ground. Negotiations need to bring about mutual agreements that reflect a sense of interdependence for all parties. You can't expect people to be motivated to work together when there is no strong reason for them to do so. I think that with more time, investment/commitment from foreign leaders and with a continued preservation of hope for a peaceful solution, the war option can be kept under the bed along with all the other childish fantasies.

And in regards to Prunier himself.......it is so fucking easy for you to sit there in your armchair and talk of war when the saliency of the suffering, sacrifices and casualties of conflict is so far from your arrogant mind. Place your life and the lives of those you love on the front line and then we'll see if your strong support for war persists. In the future, be more careful with your sentiments, as your words are likely to influence the opinion of those that read it, and this world does not require anymore warmongers..........unless your solution to humanities problems is in fact to eradicate humanity itself.

............now I need to go wash the taste of hippy off my mouth.


h/t: Roving Bandit

DDR Reversal

From ST:

On Tuesday the Vice President, Riek Machar, called for a joint meeting involving national ministers and leadership of the bicameral Juba parliament as well as representatives of the political parties, national unions, business community, local NGOs and civil society organizations in the country.The meeting called for the formation of a wider national mobilization body to coordinate efforts geared towards mobilizing human and material resources to support the national army in the face of the "Khartoum’s aggression.".....This will include recruitment into the army youth volunteers and ex-combatants.

So much for all that effort put into DDR......well, at least UNDDR now has a solid excuse for not having done anything.
Also, how awkward is it going to be to have the soldiers go back out to the villages to return the weapons they took from civilians during the various disarmament campaigns. 


Still, I can't see any possibility of this decision coming back to haunt them in the future.........

UNMISS gets bombed

Reports are coming in of Sudanese Airforce dropping bombs on the UNMISS camp in Bentiu...


It appears that the SPLA have intentionally not target the planes with their anti-air weapons following a secret deal that was made between the North and the South. Apparently, both sides have grown so sick and tired of the sheer laziness and incompetence of UNMISS that they both turned their sights on to the peacekeepers and UN general staff. 

"Gideon, the minister, Gatpan said that two bombs had fallen in the UN camp, destroying a generator and a radio."

In an interview with the minister, he said,

"We told the northerners to target their main sources of entertainment, namely, their electricity and communications.......we are hoping that once they no longer have anything fun to do in their fancy camps, they might get off their ass and do some peacekeeping, build some peace or at least just get out for some fresh air."

An interview with the Northern military spokesman confirmed this,

"Yeah well.....we're all out here fighting a war, getting ourselves blow up and shit, the least those bastards could do is have enough consideration to just pretend like they give a fuck. Instead, they just sit there acting all high and mighty like our beef is not good enough for them. It's like they're all waiting to get transfered to a sexier conflict in somewhere like Syria. Anyways, we decided to bomb their entertainment system in hopes that they will finally leave their compound to watch us blow the shit out of each other......let's hope it works."

What has UNMISS achieved?......Nothing

Roving Bandit poses the question of the efficacy of UNMISS and goes further to question the viability of aid expenditure on peacebuilding and governance in general when compared to the "safer bet" of investing in health and education.

Lets first address the simpler issue regarding UNMISS......
What have they achieved?......so little that their ineptitude has caused a vacuum that threatens to engulf our planet ....

I was tempted to just leave it at that........but I guess there are many more laughable points to be gained from a deeper investigation.

The best place to start would be their website. While there are all sorts of updates, articles and reports on all sorts of activities that you would think UNMISS is involved in, a closer inspection leads to the realisation that UNMISS is nothing more than an event planning and taxi service. For example, following the violent conflicts in Jonglei earlier this year, the South Sudanese Presidential Committee for Peace organised a peace planning workshop (no surprises there), where they came up with a bunch of points and ideas that had already been thought of a million times over during the million other peace planning workshop that has taken place since the concept of peacebuilding came to South Sudan.

In reply to a question regarding how UNMISS hopes to contribute to these wonderfully 'novel' ideas, some important UN guy replied;

"We will provide logistical support, from transporting the committee that has been formed to conduct the peace process at the grass-roots level to organizing workshops and meetings within communities. 

We will participate in substantive discussions and offer ideas for working group meetings. We have also been providing logistical support for sensitization of the parallel civilian disarmament process. And we are prepared to assist with destruction of collected weapons, if that is the government’s wish, or help transport them and store them in a safe and secure place"

Translation: We will let you guys play with our fancy helicopters (which are in a ludicrous abundance and serve very little purpose aside from making the few who get to use it feel like a badass). We will also throw you some wicked-fun conferences with delicious snacks and crappy t-shirts. And finally, we will take out your trash (guns) or burn them......you know.....whatever you need to make us feel like we're doing something.

I got a bit carried away there..... anyways, the site is filled with what their targets and objectives are, but contain absolutely no information regarding what they have achieved (this usually suggests nothing).

And now, regarding Roving Bandit's point on peacebuilding and governance projects in general.....

Someone in his comments section had already addressed the problem of assuming a returns in education so allow me to try and respond to the point on health with an anecdotal point.

I once worked on a project in South Sudan where we were setting up water points as well as latrines (for the school) in a particular village. However, about 2 weeks after the project was complete there were some conflict between different ethnic groups which subsequently led to the entire village being abandoned. Ok, fair enough that this was WASH and not necessarily health, but I think the point is clear. While conflict continues to constantly displace people, it is rather difficult to make a good targeted investment in any sector. Also, lets not forget the number of hospitals that get burned down as a result of conflicts (an example of a couple here).

But the main argument is really that peacebuilding does not necessarily have to be a big gamble. As long as a shred of thought is put into the projects and that ideas are based on actual evidence as opposed to simply being the musings of a bunch of arbitrarily selected individuals at a 'party' organised by UNMISS (more on this rant here)

Finally.....to you Roving Bandit; you calculator-wielding, STATA-code-eyed, rational-model-worshipping, oversimplifying, desk jockey!!.........Stop trying to quantify and measure peace. Has the Wire not taught you anything about the downfall of playing a numbers game when it comes to peace?

No more peace conferences!!!! (the conflict in Jonglei)

Im sure (hoping) that many of you have heard about the recent violence that has been occurring in Jonglei State of South Sudan between the Murle community of Pibor county and the Lou-Nuer of the surrounding area*. I was pleasantly surprised to find that Al-Jazeera had made it the headline of their front page. Also, here is a link to an interesting recording from the BBC Worldservice, on the current conflict
It is difficult to really state when this conflict actually began but it is certain that the the level of violence has been continuously escalating as vengeance is met revenge. This recent attack is in retaliation to this attack that left 600 (Lou-Nuer) dead, which was a retaliation to this attack 250 (Murle)  dead, and so on and so forth. The number of casualties of this recent attack has been estimated at 2,182 people from the Murle community, mostly women and children......That is about 1.5% of the entire Murle population**. This is the type of numbers you see from a full military conflict or civil war. But this is not civil war. This is a conflict between two communities fighting over identity, resources (cattle) and a lot of strong emotions. For me, one of the strangest thing about this conflict is that you can't really sympathise with either sides.

Anyways, the following is a video from Al-Jazeera, I want to draw your attention to the interview with the vice president Riek Machar, and his strategy on dealing with the issue. 

******WARNING: OFFENSIVE LANGUAGE IMMINENT.....you have been warned*********

Aside from the standard procedures to deal with the immediate threat, deployment of additional security forces and the creation of a buffer zone, the solution is one that I am absolutely sick and tired of hearing......Motherfucking PEACE CONFERENCE!!

For those that might not know, a peace conference is basically just an event where the politicians and community leaders from both warring parties come together, have a nice meal, hand out some t-shirts, and tell some wanker consultant about what THEY think the cause of conflict is and how THEY think the issues can be resolved. A whole bunch of pretty resolution and recommendations are written down....and then ends up in some file to never see the light of day again. This obsession of peace conferences basically stems from its successes in resolving some of the inter-community conflict, back in the day. Since those successes, whenever there is a conflict, peace conferences have become the de facto solution.....but it has been so long since they have been successful. The organisers typically exclude the people who are involved in the conflict, and when the belligerents are involved, they will say whatever sounds good at the time just for the sake of saying them.....people behave differently in the presence of different people?!.....that is just shocking! (anyone who has ever done a community focus group discussion will know what Im talking about).

Now of course I am being excessively harsh. Its not like I have any bright ideas to solve this conflict.....(not one that is ready to be implemented anyways) and these politicians are merely just implementing what they know......and what they know is basically whatever horseshit that NGOs and the UN have been feeding them.....and what do these people know? well....horseshit. Many of the peacebuilding strategies are created with guesswork based on the dubious information about the causes of the conflict that they extract from the community (through rubbish focus group discussions).
So basically, Im calling for an end to this ridiculous method of resolving conflict. Im calling for a beginning of peacebuilding strategies that are rigorously tested before implementation. Im calling for new approaches to resolving conflict that does not involve what is essentially a really expensive circle jerk***

Oh and lets also not forget those damn donors with their short term funding that forces organisations to adopt simple shallow projects that are expected to perform miracles......fuck you, you ignorant cretins.

Finally, I just have to add.....the UN would've probably been able to anticipate this attack much much earlier if they actually had people on the ground. The UN has a compound in Akobo town (the capital of the county where the Lou-Nuer come from) that I know is always empty. They just fly-in on their fancy helicopters once in a while to talk to the county commissioner, but never actually stay there.....probably due to security issues.....pussies.

*For a map of the boundaries of the various ethnic groups in SS, go here

** For the SS 2010 census, go here 

*** Not to say that there aren't organisations out there that are trying different approaches......but usually when there are, they are still not very well thought through and a widely based on gut instinct. 

More Tweet Battles...

Continuing on from previous wars being fought over twitter, Al-Shabab (@HSMPress) and the Kenyan Defence Forces (@KDF) have started their on war of words as the KDF pushes into Somalia in support of the "Somalian Government".

From Al-Jazeera:

A few days ago, al-Shabab posted this, referring to the Kenyan Defence Forces (KDF): "Unable to foot the bill, the young & temperamental #KDF joins the fatigued &timid #AMISOM in a turbulent marriage of convenience." 

Major Emmaneul Chirchir, the KDF's spokesman, is also on Twitter (@MajorEChirchir). When Kenyan forces went into Somalia, he tweeted the names of the Somali towns which would be targeted, warning people to leave. 

 "Any large concentration and movement of loaded donkeys will be considered Al Shabaab activity," he wrote.

@HSMPress responded: "Like bombing donkeys, you mean! Your eccentric battle strategy has got animal rights groups quite concerned. Major. " 

The Major, clearly rattled, responded: "Life has more meaning than denying women to wear bras..RT in support of Somalia women."

The use of formal english in their tweets suggests that the writer for Al-Shabab was educated in the west or is a westerner themselves. Whoever it is, they are pretty dedicated in their role as a spokesperson, while even adding some humour:

@nazaninemoshiri [correspondent for Al-Jazeera] This must be #AlJazeera's innovative new approach to Twitter interviews. Should we call it Twinterview?

On the darker side, HSMPress is also being used as a means to report the victims of its violence:

Images of the ID cards of #Burundian soldiers killed in #Mogadishubattles. - NSENGIYUMVA, Céléstin. D.O.B = 1975

The Machine Gun Present

Oh joy, the lovely folks at Invisible Children, in collaboration with the Enough! project, gave the Machine Gun Preacher a fancy new app that helps him track LRA movement. Now he can easily capture more LRA soldiers.....

I just hope that he doesn't accidentally get shot by those newly US trained soldiers.

Conflicts in Everything: Man vs Lion

Bow-Chika-Wow-WAR!!!!

From the BPS research blog:

Across four experiments Lei Chang and his team showed that pictures of attractive women or women's legs had a raft of war-relevant effects on heterosexual male participants, including: biasing their judgments to be more bellicose towards hostile countries; speeding their ability to locate an armed soldier on a computer screen; and speeding their ability to recognise and locate war-related words on a computer screen. Equivalent effects after looking at pictures of attractive men were not found for female participants.

The effects on the male participants of looking at attractive women were specific to war. For example, their ability to locate pictures of farmers, as opposed to soldiers, was not enhanced. Moreover, the war-priming effects of attractive women were greater than with other potentially provocative stimuli, such as the national flag. Finally, the men's faster performance after looking at women's legs versus flags was specific to war-related words, as opposed to merely aggressive words.

Now I wonder if level of attraction can alter the strength of effect.....

China and the US can shove each other....

As it turns out... other countries and military threats aren't actually needed to help bring an end to conflict.* Africans solving African problems.....its beautiful:

The "Framework Agreement between Government of Sudan and Sudan People’s Liberation Movement (North) on Political Partnership between NCP and SPLMN, and Political and Security Arrangements in Blue Nile and Southern Kordofan States" was signed yesterday and should hopefully bring an end to the violence in the region.

Now this is only a framework agreement, which means a lot of negotiating still needs to be done and that there is still a high chance of violence breaking out. Abyei has been in negotiations for like forever and still escalates to violence when things go sour at the table. Nonetheless, negotiations are definitely better than bombs.

The agreement only consists of 2 sections, political arrangements and security arrangements. Some highlights of the agreement:

2. The Parties affirm the right of the SPLMN to continue as a legal political party in Sudan.

4. The Parties shall convene the Joint Political Committee immediately. The issues of governance in Southern Kordofan shall be discussed and resolved amicably by the Joint Political Committee within thirty days.

5 c. Without prejudice to the bilateral discussion between the two Parties on issues to be addressed through the process of popular consultation, the Popular Consultation process shall be extended beyond 9 July 2011 through an agreed amendment by the National Assembly.

9. The Parties agree on the following principles, which shall be the basis for the work of the Joint Security Committee:

a. Respect for the sovereignty and territorial integrity of the Republic of the Sudan and the inviolability of its national borders.

b. Securing sustainable peace and stability and ensuring the safety and security of communities of Blue Nile and Southern Kordofan.

c. SPLA members from Southern Kordofan and Blue Nile are citizens of the Republic of the Sudan and their future lies in the Republic of Sudan.

d. The Republic of Sudan will have one national army.

e. The SPLA forces from Southern Kordofan and Blue Nile shall be integrated, over a time period and with modalities to be agreed, into the Sudan Armed Forces, other security institutions, and the civil service, or DDR.

f. Any disarmament shall be done in accordance with agreed-upon plans and without resorting to force.

The full document is available here thanks to John Ashworth (Let me know if that link fails). Here is some Sudan Tribune coverage too

*Yes, I do realise that the NCP may not have signed the agreement if the US had not gone ahead with its carrots and sticks policy, but I like to dream.....also there is this too:

NCP slams U.S. “carrot-and-stick” policy

Separately, Qutbi Al-Mahdi distrusted promises by the U.S. administration to help relieve Sudan’s hefty external debts in exchange for de-escalating the situation in the country’s North-South border state of South Kordofan, where the Northern army has been fighting elements aligned with South Sudan army.

Al-Mahdi told reporters in Khartoum on Monday that the NCP does not pay any attention to U.S. promises whether on the debt issue or other issues because the government realises that the U.S. administration “spews such promises to achieve particular ends then reneges on its commitments.”

“The failure to fulfill promises and commitments is a moral issue and we know to which extent does America honors its promises,” the ruling party official said.

Al-Mahdi went on to fulminate against the U.S. policy know as the “carrot-and-stick,” saying that no free people would accept to deal with America in accordance with this “nefarious” policy.

“That’s why we in Sudan do not afford America’s promises any attention,” he added.

The U.S. Administration is currently in the process of removing Sudan’s name from its blacklist of countries sponsoring terrorism, but the administration has warned Sudan government that the process of normalisation of ties would be jeopardised if the Northern army does not withdraw from the contested region of Abyei which it seized last month.

ouch.

The Abyei Peace Agreement

Khartoum and the SPLM have finally both signed an agreement that should bring an end to violence in Abyei. Now this is not the final solution to the dispute over Abyei, rather, it will simply provide a better environment for the dispute to be resolved as both parties agree to:

• Respect the Abyei Protocol of the CPA; and
• Consider any other proposal from the African Union High Level Implementation Panel on Sudan (AUHIP) to resolve the disputes.

Other highlights include:

Administration

Abyei will now be governed by an executive administration and an executive council

The Administration will consist of:

- The Chief Administrator (SPLM)

- The Deputy Chief Administrator (GoS)

- Five heads of Departments (3 SPLM & 2 GoS)

The Council will, just as it was in the earlier Abyei Protocol, a 20 member council chaired by GoS. The Council will draw up Abyei’s budget and both parties will finance it.

Security

Abyei will be demilitarized with the exception of the deployment of an armoured brigade of Ethiopian soldiers to act as the new Interim Security Force for Abyei (ISFA). They are mandated to monitor the agreement, provide security to Abyei, its citizens and its borders, build the capacity of the to be formed Abyei Police Service and facilitate humanitarian assistance.

Humanitarian Assistance

IDPs have the right to return and both parties shall facilitate the return of IDPs. Humanitarian agencies also have the right to return….

Migration

The nomadic communities continue to have freedom of movement to access pasture and water. They will however be accompanied by a special unit of the Abyei Police Service.

Fantastic..... now lets resolve South Kordofan.