Just calm down.....

In his latest attempt to CALM EVERYONE THE FUCK DOWN, Bashir has blamed  zombies, crab people, gingers, witches, Jews and climate change for the recent protests demonstrations kerfuffle in Khartoum.

Following his head of PR's advice that the public are probably not going to buy that the recent problems are not actually a mini uprising but rather just a bunch of street children going mental, Bashir has gone into full "crazy dictator's crazier explanations for country's problems" mode. The key is saturation of scapegoats.......try them all and one is sure to succeed.

Although Bashir was given great credit for introducing the latest excuse of;
"We've already had an arab spring-like revolution in Sudan.......this is the product of it, and we are totally not due for another one for at least another 30 years."


So to all you commentators and voyeurs-of-revolutions out there who are on the brink of bursting that sweet uprising nectar.......You'll have to just put it back in your pants.


Despite these seemingly concrete plans that are clearly going to work, some within his faction who have a lack of faith for Bashir's strategy have been devising alternative plans:

"Separately, the President’s uncle, al-Tayeb Mustafa, advised his cousin to withdraw from the NCP and initiate a process of political reform in the country with free and fair elections as its endpoint. Thereby, he argued, the President could streamline an Arab Spring in Sudan without going through its risky pangs, the non-alcoholic beer of a revolution without a revolution. " (source)

Give war a chance......it's not as horrible as people say it is

                                          (I can't believe I found a relevant video that is also related to current pop-culture)

"Paradoxically, an all-out civil war in Sudan may be the best way to permanently oust Mr. Bashir and minimize casualties. If a low-intensity conflict rages on, it will lead to a humanitarian disaster."

Seriously Gerard Prunier? I now imagine you're the type of person to put out a grease fire with an RPG.
You sound like an artificial intelligence robot that developed consciousness and calculated the conclusion that the only way to solve humanities problems is to eradicate humanity itself.

Polemic bullshit like this really gets on my nerves......all I hear is an endless barrage of emotionally driven irrational rhetoric that is more destructive than helpful. High-intensity conflict is not the solution. Its a nice thought, but clearly not one that has been very well though through.

For instance, how can one be sure that an all-out civil war won't simply be stretched out over a long period time with innumerable casualties on all sides? Is it really fair to throw those who may not necessarily have a desire to fight into a  full-scale war? Irrelevant of which side of the battlefield they stand on, in an all-out civil war, everyone is thrown into the line of sight. Furthermore, Prunier assumes that the dynamics of an all-out civil war is will be so simple, with one united front clashing against Bashir and his henchmen. Rather, we have long seen the complications of the group dynamics within the various conflict afflicted regions. These complications arise from distinctly differing reasons for their rebellion in the first place and more importantly, differences in their end game or vision for the conflict. For example the various Darfuri rebels have always had problems agreeing on issues. More recently, there was this. In an all-out civil war, it really wouldn't be that hard to imagine that Bashir, being true to his diabolical Bond-villain-like nature, would simply exploit these differences to cause internal clashes, thus weakening any united alliances. We've seen it happen in South Sudan with the apparent financing of rebel groups by Khartoum during and after the war.


More importantly, even if somehow the rebels were able to stay united and manage to oust Bashir.........what then? With so many differing visions of what Sudan should be, coming from a range of peoples who are typically ethnically and culturally distinct from each other, can it be assumed that they would all just sit down be able to come up with a clear plan as to how the country will be ruled and by whom? Or is it just as likely that the these various rebels representing their community will continue to fight and will continue to increase the death toll, long after Bashir is gone?

I realise that I sound extremely pessimistic......but thats because I am. I will always be pessimistic towards the war option, especially when I am still very optimistic about a peaceful option.

"The status quo is not working, regardless of what American and United Nations officials might believe."

Yes, the status quo may not be working......but that doesn't mean that we give up and simply start shooting. It means that we change the status quo. For example, Prunier argues that;

"Whenever foreign leaders demand greater respect for human rights or peace talks, Sudan always agrees, because agreeing makes the international community happy"

 Well, equally valid is the fact that foreign leaders also always promise Sudan that they would finally ease up on all the sanctions if Sudan did "X", but when Sudan does "X", foreign leaders do not follow through. More on this point here.

"Indeed, without some moral common ground, “negotiations” are merely a polite way of acquiescing to evil, especially when one’s interlocutors are pathologically incapable of respecting their own word. And in the case of a murderer like Mr. Bashir, there is no moral common ground."

Only fools hold negotiations based on moral common ground. Negotiations need to bring about mutual agreements that reflect a sense of interdependence for all parties. You can't expect people to be motivated to work together when there is no strong reason for them to do so. I think that with more time, investment/commitment from foreign leaders and with a continued preservation of hope for a peaceful solution, the war option can be kept under the bed along with all the other childish fantasies.

And in regards to Prunier himself.......it is so fucking easy for you to sit there in your armchair and talk of war when the saliency of the suffering, sacrifices and casualties of conflict is so far from your arrogant mind. Place your life and the lives of those you love on the front line and then we'll see if your strong support for war persists. In the future, be more careful with your sentiments, as your words are likely to influence the opinion of those that read it, and this world does not require anymore warmongers..........unless your solution to humanities problems is in fact to eradicate humanity itself.

............now I need to go wash the taste of hippy off my mouth.


h/t: Roving Bandit

Lessons in diplomacy

If things start to get messy, just walk away:

 The Kenyan foreign minister Moses Wetangula on Tuesday announced that his government will not host the Intergovernmental Authority on Development (IGAD) meeting that was to be dedicated for discussions on the Sudan issues.
The decision comes against the backdrop of the arrest warrant issued by a Kenyan high court judge last month for Sudanese president Omer Hassan al-Bashir in compliance with similar warrant from the International Criminal Court (ICC)....the Kenyan top diplomat reversed course revealing that Kenya has written to IGAD to allow Ethiopia host the summit since President Meles Zenawi is the current IGAD chairman.

from Sudan Tribune.

Also, read the rest of the article to see a beautiful political system with its powers well distributed in action.

Stabilisation in oil revenues and diversification in revenue sources to ensure macroeconomic stability and sustained growth

Nah, just kidding. This is actually just another post about why I hate Prendergast.

In introducing our favourite humanitarian disaster, Stephen Colbert said this,

"....and your group helped push the referendum that led to the creation of South Sudan"

In which Prendergrast replied with a.....

(nod, nod, nod)

Now before I go ahead and criticise Prendergast for not correcting Colbert for such a claim, I thought it would only be fair that I first spoke to those involved in the referendum to see whether this point may actually be true.

So I hoped on my magic donkey and went to see my bro Bashir to get his views.

"Prendergast?! Dude with feminine long hair? He is somebody? I think that hippy was George Clooney's drug dealer or personal assistant. But no, he do nothing to push referendum.....it was all Clooney. He told me I get to be in his next movie with Matt Damon.........Kim Jong Il is going to be so jealous"

Anyone else out there tries to take credit away from the people who truly struggled to reach this independence will know my wrath. I will write many blog posts using the most juvenile of insults to bring shame upon you and your genetic existence.

Organisations that merely raise awareness for a bunch of self-righteous American college students who then go and host parties to raise awareness amongst themselves in a self-gratifying circle jerk gets no credit.

Clooney on the other hand gets mad props. Respect brother.

Full video:

The Colbert Report
Get More: Colbert Report Full Episodes,Political Humor & Satire Blog,Video Archive

And yes, I am being petty. But you see, Prendergast to me is like what airplane food is to a failing comedian. When I have no material to write about, I can always rely on Prendergast for inspiration just as a comedian can turn to airplane food in times of desperation.

So despite my inherent hatred towards him, he is pretty much the foundation of my blogging career.

Cartoon

Most people might have already seen this on John Ashworth's google group:

Waltz With Bashir

Only 2 days to go before I start to really struggle to fill in the “current location” part of any form on the Internet and I am way to excited to be writing blog posts. So Im just gonna try summarise lots of issues into this one post:

- Last night at 10 pm the Transitional Constitution of South Sudan was passed. Only 10 out of the many potential amendments were passed thus leaving the President with an excessive amount of power. I believe President Salva Kiir is now Commander in Chief of all animals and is also able to resurrect the dead. The fact that some of the suggest amendments were made to the draft is a good sign that the process has a lot of potential. Also, this is just an interim constitution, so hopefully things will play out better the next time around. More coverage on this once I get a hold of the complete version.

- Some of my favourite number crunching nerds have come together to write an interesting post on the economic prospects of South Sudan. Im pretty sure almost all of my readers got here through Roving Bandit anyways so I won’t get into it, but I would like to point out that they failed to mention anything about security... So I will be going to break all of their abacuses to remind them about the effects of violence on economists…I mean economics.

- Juba is going through some CRAZY transformations in preparation for this Saturday. For example, when I first moved here, we used to have to drive past a roundabout that was demarcated using a tyre that would always get stolen and then replaced with some other object. That tyre is now a huge concrete roundabout with grass flourishing in the middle of it and tarmacked roads leading up to it from every direction. Roads which now have lanes drawn on it and street signs to manage it. Also, did anybody say proper pistachio ice cream? OH YEEEEEAAH.

- There has been rumours flying around about apparent government representatives from certain countries that refused to come celebrate the birth of this new country simply because President Bashir will be attending (its not cool to hang with people who have ICC warrants). Now of course these are just rumours, but if it is true all I have to say is suck it up you self-righteous little bitch*. July 9^th isn’t about you, the ICC, or Bashir. It is about South Sudan’s birthday; and it will invite its long time villain if it wants to, invite its long time villain if it wants to. I personally have incredible respect for South Sudan for inviting Bashir despite their obviously murderous history. So if the victims of Bashir’s aggression can be big enough to have him present, the rest of you need to stop being such wankers* and respect their decision. Plus, so what if you don’t come? You player haters are the ones who are going to miss out on Bashir’s dictator dance:

OH, and all you countries better recognise yo......seriously-literally, please dont be a dick and not recognise South Sudan.

* The swear words found here are dedicated to Abhi, who thinks my blog has become better now that I don’t swear as much……fuck you Abhi….fuck you.

Cyber uprising in Sudan

Across the Arab World we have been seeing nation after nation rising up to overthrow their respective dictators. At the forefront of coordination and communication amongst these nations has been the internet and social networking services. Therefore, being the fox that he is, President Bashir has always tried to stay ahead of the game.

His first move came at the start of February when he called upon the citizens of Sudan to 'Like' his page so that it becomes clear that he definitely has more friends on his profile than the opposition. He even went so far as to encourage authorities to extend the electricity grid so that more people can join Facebook and be friends with him.

However, Bashir did not feel that this was sufficient. Therefore, in true Bashir proxy militia style, he has unleashed his "Cyber-Jihadists" or Cyber-Janjaweed on those opposition supporters roaming the social networking sites with orders to "crush" all that try to topple the government.
Soon, mass Facerapes/Frapes will commence and a genocide of profile pages will ensue. Thousands will have to seek refuge in lesser sites such as Bebo, Myspace and even Friendster, where basic services such as chat and tagging are almost non-existent. Livelihoods will be destroyed as countless livestock and crops on Farmville are neglected.

I am therefore urging the Internet Architecture Board and the entire international internet community to convene and to come up with a resolution to establish a "No-Surf Zone" over Sudan. Responsibility of enforcing this should then be transferred over to those of Anonymous.

This is an issue of the utmost gravity. We must act now before countless internet identities are massacred.









I have no shame

Oppositions in Revolutions (photo update)

With the Tunisians taking back their country from their once dictator, Ben Ali, commentators are now predicting a ripple effect where the people under the same form of dictatorship will be inspired to also mutiny in the streets in hopes of achieving the same revolutionary results. We are already seeing this happen in Egypt (Yemen, Saudi Arabia), where the government is typically very swift in their reaction to quell any dissent. I mean these guys are extremely organised in their anti-riot procedures.

I was caught in a demonstration in Al-Azhar mosque during Israel's invasion of Gaza and when I eventually got outside, the generals had set up a nice little couch outside and had guys dressed in French waiter's outfits to serve them tea as they watched their soldiers beat on the protesters (click photo to enlarge).

I digress…..

Now what - I believe - makes the Tunisian revolution (if you please) so inspiring and replicable is the fact that it was the people, and only the people that rose up against the government. Not some opposition party with its own agendas and struggle for power. Explanation you ask?

Well an opposition led uprising can quiet easily be made to look like an insurgency/coup and will therefore receive less sympathy from the public as a whole as well as the international community.

An opposition party led revolution is limited by its supporters because the changes they are pushing for will be based on their own agenda, one that may not be in line with public as a whole. On the other hand, when the agenda is a clear and simple "removal of the current power", it becomes much easier for everyone who has suffered under that authority to become a stakeholder in the movement without fear of what may replace it. Obviously, not knowing what may fill that power vacuum can be apprehensive, but its less apprehensive and more focusing than having to worry about supporting a movement that will put someone that you are suspicious of in power. Therefore, to get the massive public support, you don't want to cloud their thoughts with negative thoughts of the potentially dismal future, rather, you want to keep the focus on the liberation of the people from tyranny.

That’s why I think the Muslim Brotherhood made an excellent decision to not involve itself in the ongoing movement in Egypt. It is also probably why ElBaradei is merely joining protests and not leading them. (So much for that - they are still playing it cool and not hijacking the whole thing though)

Over in Sudan (the bit in the north), there have been minor scale protests, not so much against the leadership but rather the ending of subsidies on food and fuel. The coalition of opposition parties has naturally used this to bring forward threats that a similar situation as that in Tunisia could be repeated here/there (Where am I?). However, Bashir, whilst seemingly sinister to the international community, actually has quite the support base locally. Also, since the opposition parties are many and not really in line with each other, it’s really hard for the public to get behind them and execute a concerted revolt. Instead, the smooth war criminal can confidently say stuff like:

"The day we feel that the people reject us we will go out to them in the streets so that they can throw stones on us…. We will not go outside Sudan [if a revolution breaks out] but we will be buried here".

He was also confident and cheeky enough to state that the Sudanese people had disappointed the opposition parties by not going out in full to protest the recent increases in food prices.

Get a room Kiir and Bashir

(I love this photo)










“This is a historic credit to President Bashir and the NCP and I further urge him to continue working hand in hand with us to consolidate peace and prosperity for all irrespective of what the referendum holds in store for Sudan,” Salva Kiir

"The ball is in your court and the decision is yours. If you say unity, welcome. And if you say secession, also welcome, and welcome to a new brotherly state...We are going to cooperate and integrate in all areas because what is between us is more than what is between any other countries" Omar Al Bashir

It seems that gone are the days of blaming each other for stirring trouble. And with only a week left to go before the referendum, this is impeccable timing.

Now some may argue that this rhetoric is some devious propaganda strategy to set a baseline image of themselves as being the 'good guy', but I like to be naive and take it as good grace and a promising sign of peace. I guess both sides have come to terms with the strategic importance and benefits of cooperation.

“We will call and work for creating relations based on cooperation and promotion of common interests, and to present a role model in maintaining joint security and exchanging interests as well as looking after social relations and ties of blood, kinship and history,” Bashir

The beauty of it all makes me want to throw up......but I love it.

“We will call and work for creating relations based on cooperation and promotion of common interests, and to present a role model in maintaining joint security and exchanging interests as well as looking after social relations and ties of blood, kinship and history,” Bashir

So what happens to the north after secession?

With only 10 days to the referendum and talk of whether it will happen or not essentially dead (hint: its going to happen), what happens next is the new exciting topic.

In the South many of those who will be voting for unity (however many secessionist, especially soldiers believe this too) are preparing for what they see as the intra-south war between the Dinka and the rest of the various tribes/ethnicities/nationalities/whateveryouwannacallit. Although this view have mainly came from Equatorians who really only see a clash between the Dinka and the 'united tribes' of Equatoria, without consideration of anyone else, not even the second majority Nuer peoples. However, this is merely the speculations of average everyday people and I'm sure that GoSS has a strategy to deal with these issues - because at the end of the day, a civil war would only really happen if the politicians and tribal leaders decide it. They are the ones to incite hate in their communities towards others, and at the same time, they are the ones able to stop an escalation into war - if they choose to. Low-level inter-tribal conflict will essentially continue, but merely on a criminal level as it has throughout history.... Bla bla bla

ANYWAY......

What is interesting now is the ripple effect of the South's exhibition of a successful struggle. Now that the referendum has shown that success and freedom can be granted to those who try, we have begun to see a forthcoming revolution in the north. Well, at least that is the feeling I got when I read these headlines the other day:
Sudan opposition gives NCP ultimatum to hold constitutional talks
and
SPLM North threatens to use violence against Sudan's NCP
But the thing is, they are too late, and Bashir made some pretty strong arguments against them with his classic beautiful rhetoric.

"Whoever wants to overthrow the government can lick his elbow....."

In case you didn't get it, to lick one's elbow is physically impossible......so is to overthrow the government....at least through legal channels. As he argues, the NCP was a democratically elected government

"The government is not a revolutionary council or any government that can be ousted but it is the Sudanese people,"

And yes, I fully meant it when I said democratically elected government. Now I don't care about what you have to say about how valid the elections were and whether you witnessed some terrible electoral crimes, because at the end of the day, the election observers and the wider international community did not oppose the results or the credibility of the whole process.

It seems that at the time, people (locally and internationally) were too focused on ensuring that the election just happened so that the next milestone (the referendum) could be reached. Now that we are all reaching that milestone, the troubles that we chose to leave behind is catching up with us. Bashir now sits very comfortably in his position, with no legally legitimate threat to his power. SPLM in the South had sacrificed the right of the people in the north by getting Yasir Arman to stand down during the April elections as a compromise to NCP to ensure SPLM's dominance in the South (as it did to so many independent candidates in the South, what ever happened to Alfred Gore?). The international community (as non-biased as it is) didn't want to rattle the cage too much and was content with the two major sides being happy. And then of course there were those parties who tried to boycott the elections but were essentially left to stand alone with their dick in their hands with absolutely no love or support.

So, once again everyone settled for the easy path at the time of crisis and once again, they will pay for it. Everyone made sacrifices by turning a blind eye, or withdrawing from the process, but in the end Bashir still came out on top......you really do have to hand it to the crafty little fuck.

"O.K., my one prediction is that events won’t unfold precisely like that..."

That was the always alarming, Nick Kristoff, talking about his prediction of how things might play out in Sudan following the referendum. Well.....two can play at that game.

DEC. 10, 2010 Word trickles out of massacres and widespread rapes by tribal militias from the North in the boiling borderlands between North and South. Turns out, it was just a bunch of rumours spread by " Westerners with an interest in a divided and weakened Sudan".

DEC. 15 The chairman of the referendum commission (from the North) calls on the South to postpone the vote for “just one month,” pointing to insecurity and to inadequate preparations for voting. The South insists that the referendum will go on as scheduled. The North responds by simply giving the South it's desired independence and refocuses its attention on raping Darfur.

JAN. 9, 2011 The referendum is not held at the disappointment of many t-shirt flag vendors. Op-Ed columnists are left with nothing more to speak of so they too refocus their attention on raping Darfur. Chinese and Malaysian oil companies rejoice as their commitment to not pull out of the country pays off.

JAN. 18 Salva Kiir, the President of the newly independent South Sudan goes on a bike ride with Bashir. They stop under a mango tree to discuss their future alliance. They high-five each other - camera freezes as they both leap into the air and their hands meet.

JAN. 20 Reports begin to come out from the Nuba mountains of sightings of Care Bears. According to an interview with Grumpy Bear, it was in fact these diabolical bears and their bio-weapon, the "Care Bear Stare", that was behind the sudden prosperous peace between the North and South Sudan. Asked as to why Darfur is still seeing high levels of rape, Grumpy Bear answered "Well, Love-a-lot Bear was tasked to deal with that conflict. However she ended up overdoing it with her powers and became Too-much-love bear, leading to mass rape across the land"
See, Kristoff... I'm pretty good at making shit up too.


Anyways, 2 points:

Firstly; I am fully aware that there is a great potential for a resurgence of the North-South War if things don't go smoothly prior or during the referendum. I realise that the North has a lot to lose if the South does secede and are therefore willing to take action to destabilise the situation. However, that does not mean that there isn't any hope for a peaceful referendum and eventual secession. Maybe I am absolutely crazy for thinking that people can change for the better, or that the North can come to see the benefits of allowing its South to be independent (the South still needs a pipeline and refineries for its oil and like Singapore, Sudan can be the refinery guy). But I would rather be crazy than be that miserable-wanker-with-a-fetish-for-war who thinks that speculating about war all the time won't eventually incite it. Thats right, incite it. because drawing a picture of the north as being villainous is sure as hell not a very good diplomatic strategy. This isn't a 1970's cartoon where the bad guy just wants the world to descend into chaos for no real particular motive. Bashir is not Cobra Commander, but by always describing him as such one risks causing a self-fulfilling prophecy based on a form of stereotype threat, where if everyone says he is, he may just start to believe it and therefore act accordingly. Also, 5 years since the CPA (a massive agreement) was signed, a large number of the provisions have been accomplished (mind you with delays - but still accomplished) and there has only been 2 north-south clashes (even that were just between soldiers within the JIU and did not definitively reflect the intentions of either governments).
So lets not write off the chance for peace just yet, lets try and stay positive and lets act surprised when things turn for the worst.

Secondly, and this point is better put by Michael Busch and Oscar Blayton, is simply a call for all these advocacy groups, writers and 'academics' to stop suggesting that the US with its exceptional exceptionalism should take the war to Sudan - in the same packaging as Iraq. Also, I would just like to add, Kristoff's suggestion (based on an old CIA plan) to fire missiles at the refinery and pipeline in Port Sudan is just stupid. If you are doing it to help the South, I don't think destroying its main source of income is very clever. Also, good luck winning the support of China after that…..unless that was the plan? (cue dramatic horns "Dumb-Dumb-Dumb")

So if war breaks out, il be here pissing into the wind while you can laugh smugly about being right…enjoy it, because I will return as a ghost and haunt-rape you in your sleep (too much?)

Photo credit: got it from John Akec's blog

AU and the ICC

Ok, Im sorry I keep bringing this up, but this revelation was too exciting to pass up. Please also excuse the mess of this post as thats too much I want to include.

"The African Union (AU) delegates at the summit in Uganda agreed to remove language from the draft resolution that instructs its members not to cooperate with the International Criminal Court (ICC) in apprehending the Sudanese president Omer Hassan Al-Bashir." ST

The removal of the language was pushed by (ICC members) South Africa, Ghana and Botswana, in opposition of (non-ICC members) Libya, Eriteria and Egypt.

However, the resolution will still stand to defer Bashir's arrest warrants and will push to amend article 16 of the Rome Statute that basically only allows the UN security council to defer any investigations. The AU is calling for that power to be passed on to the General Assembly. More on that here and here.

Despite the differing views on what to do with Bashir's warrants, it is nice to see a unified position on the ICC by AU member states

"To subject a sovereign head of state to a warrant of arrest is undermining African solidarity and African peace and security that we fought for for so many years," Malawian President Bingu wa Mutharika, current head of the pan-African organization.

This is concreted with the resolution

REQUESTS Member States that are states parties to the Rome Statute of the ICC to ensure that they adhere and honour their obligations to the AU under Article 23(2) of the Constitutive Act;

So the reason all this is so exciting is because it essentially brings rise to three major issues that that require careful deliberation:

1) Which international law is greater? With the growing importance and respect of regional bodies such as the AU or the EU by their member states, will the more global international law come second to those of regional law in the same way that international laws come second to state laws? In this case, a country that choose to go against the AU and favor the ICC may face isolation and sanctions by all other members, under article 23 (2).

2) Justice vs. Peace: should countries risk causing instability and potentially bringing harm to the civilians/citizens of the country in question as well as their own civilians/citizens, for some self-righteous conception of justice? If undermining the ICC warrants can lead to long term peace in Sudan and the region, is it not worth doing?

3) Will Africa and the rest of the non-western world ever really shake that feeling that the ICC is "a European driven court, focusing on the continent only and turning a blind eye to atrocities elsewhere"?